Tuesday, January 17, 2012

DRB HICOM Purchase Proton Share, A Good Transaction for DRB and Proton?

DRB HICOM purchased 42.74% of Proton. It retains the Bumi’s ownership of Proton and prevents it from falling into foreigner’s hand. The ministers happily and proudly announced it telling Malaysians that Proton is still in Malaysian (Bumi) control. To me, most importantly, how Proton restart its journey to against competition from other car makers after this transaction? What kind of contribution and sparks that DRB can bring to Proton vice versa?

As we know, DRB Hicom is specialized in commercial vehicle and heavy machinery production. The core business of DRB Hicom has nothing to do with passenger cars. In contrary, Proton has no experience in commercial vehicle design and production, the “most commercial” vehicle is Proton Arena that is not performing very well. I cannot see any benefit enjoyed by both parties from this business transaction. What actually happen is DRB Hicom spends money without strong business justification (ROI) and Proton is “saved” from falling into foreigner’s control. We never see any sign that this transaction prepares both parties to face the competitive global market. Globalization is an unavoidable fact, we have no right to choose whether we want to take part or withdraw. What we can do it to prepare ourselves to compete and win over any opponents that potentially exist in the market. Along the way, we can see IBM sold its PC department to Lenovo, Macro took over by Tesco globally, and merger of ExxonMobil, UMW (TOYOTA) took over Perodua etc. All the activity is to strengthen both parties to compete in the market. The party that taking over helps the taken over party to reform the operation and ensures the continuity of the employment. When the operation and other aspects are reformed, the taken over party are having better chance to perform better and making profit. Hence, the investing party will have positive or better return of investment (ROI).

From the DRB HICOM and Proton transaction, both party not able to help each other directly. DRB Hicom does not have experience in designing passenger cars, car engines, tactics in passenger cars sales etc. Moreover, DRB Hicom also not able to benefit from the assembling facilities that Proton owns due to differences in business nature. On the other hand, Proton also does not benefit from DRB Hicom’s experience and expertise. We may see most car makers such as Volvo, Mercedes Benz, Nissan, Toyota etc also making commercial vehicles. However, most of them are having both businesses for donkey years and well establish in the industry.

What Proton needs now I suspect is a strong and experience partner to help it in almost all aspects of the business from design, quality, services and managements. DRB Hicom needs to further strengthen its market dominance in local and explore further into global market. Is the transaction fit for purpose? After closing this transaction, should Proton consider who its next owner is? When can the trendy TIGER dominant the local and global car market? In addition, we must not forget that Lotus International is owned by Proton, how Proton develop and benefit it since acquisition? We must realize that it is not the matter who own Proton, the core issue is who and how can develop Proton and make it a global famous Malaysian Brand!

P/S: Perodua are sold in other country as Perodua from Malaysia although it is partial own by foreign company. Proton missed the chance to learn from Mitsubishi in early stage. It might need to repeat the same process to strengthen itself. It is a tough road but it is the road that can bring prosper to Proton.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

A Good Amanah Saham 1 Malaysia Program?

AS 1M program is really benefit the citizen or bankers or Government? Bank loan out RM5k only get RM84/month as installment and full settlement after 5years, it is almost 0%p.a loan (those who bought the share of the related Bank becareful). Banker LOSE! As for the citizen, family with income RM3000 or lower, earn RM50/month plus RM83.33/month (untouchable from the AS 1M account and must pray the dividend is RM134/month for 5 years). It looks like citizen save RM5, Government subsidize RM8 at the same time for up to RM8000 cap. Citizen WIN! Government LOSE some money to subsidize citizen!

On the surface, above all is good for citizen and it is the benefit from Government and we should THANK Government and make them retain the office provided the dividend is RM134/month (32%). It is WIN LOSE LOSE Game (Citizen win, banker and government lose). I will ask, “Since it is subsidize from Government, why not just ask the citizen to open a special saving account and subsidize according to the ratio, then citizen no need worry about the dividend fluctuation and Banker also no need to LOSE (Option 2). It will turn to WIN WIN LOSE GAME (Citizen and Banker win, only government lose by helping citizen and corporate). Most critical, why 5 years and not 3 years or 10 years?

It is because:

1. If go for Option 2, government need to fork out the money directly but with a deficit government, cash flow will not be so healthy.

2. Current program enable government to obtain a big amount of money from Citizen (they buy it using saving) or Banker (they buy it using loan). They can be used to pay for the Mega Project (cows that live in condo), and the Mega purchase(pay RM1000 for RM1 worth items) which will be record in the coming Audit Report that no need to borrow money externally. Maybe next project is Chicken live in Bungalow.

3. As we know, the big difference between dividend and interest is dividend is not guarantee but interest is guarantee. Promise only valid if the party that makes promise has strong integrity. I still doubt 32% “guarantee” dividend is practical.

4. The political condition now is unstable in Malaysia, ruling party might lose the office in next election. If worst case happen, the ruling party (current government) no need to execute the responsibility but the upcoming government will need to (just like Kampung Buah Pala). It is a difficult job and if the new government no able to fork out the money, Bankers and citizen will hate them. After 5 years, they cannot wait to come back again through election and the problem already settled.

Risk of this program:

1. If global economy downturn, government not able to pay the dividend, Citizen will lose the saving or need to service this unnecessary loan. But Current Government no lose except getting scold by citizen.

2. Money already spent by government, chicken already live in bungalow, 1000000 packets nasi lemak at RM1000/packet already purchased and eaten. Benefit already taken and secured by related party and they will not be prosecuted.

3. The term “DIVIDEND” means profit from a company or activity that share among shareholders. In the law perspective it is not guarantee (I am not lawyer, maybe I am wrong). If Government don’t pay the promise amount but at lower amount, can we sue for the amount? (Maybe lawyer can help to elaborate more here). Moreover, citizen with RM3000 or lower month income how to hire lawyer for the court proceeding.

4. There might be more risk but above is what I know.

Conclusion: who WIN???

I leave it blank because I believe SMART MALAYSIAN KNOWS HOW TO CONCLUDE, OTHERWISE, MALAYSIAN DESERVES TO GET CHEATED AND CONNED. JUST LIKE COW IS USED BY HUMAN TO WORK IN FARM AND NOT THE OTHER WAY ROUND BECAUSE HUMAN IS CLEVERER THAN COW. ARE MALAYSIANS CLEVERER THAN COW? THEN WHY COW LIVE IN CONDO BUT MALAYSIAN LIVE IN TERRACE AND SOME LIVE IN SETINGGAN.